Global Markets for Infectious Disease Treatments
Summary

The global market for Infectious Diseases (treatment, vaccines and diagnostics), in 2016, was valued at $59.7 billion, expected to grow to about $99 billion by 2022, at a CAGR of 8.9%.

Key growth markets include the Western Pacific and South-East Asia regions, though all regions have a high single digit growth when look at the overall infectious diseases landscape. America is the biggest market, followed by Europe, throughout the forecast period. Higher cost of treatment accounts for the larger market values in these two markets, even though the number of cases might be lower than other parts of the world.

Therapeutics for hepatitis C and HIV/AIDS are high-value markets, with hepatitis C markets growing at a CAGR of 13% and HIV/AIDS at a CAGR of 5.1%. Malaria, primarily in the African markets, and tuberculosis in South-East Asian countries, are other diseases with high growth poised for the next few years. Rise of resistant forms of the disease, drive towards drugs with newer mechanism of action (MoA) to combat resistance, and initiatives to increase diagnostic and treatment access by WHO and national authorities will drive the market.

In 2016, the global market for HIV therapeutics was valued at $21.9 billion, set to increase to nearly $29.5 billion by 2022, at a CAGR of 5.1%. America was the largest market (more than 88% market share) primarily due to high prices of first-line treatment options and high coverage of treatment. Based on prevalence, Africa houses about 70% of the individuals living with HIV globally, but only comprises about 7% of the total global market share. This is driven by interventions to reduce prices and WHO measures to ensure increase treatment coverage.

Among vaccines, influenza vaccines have the highest market value market with growth in the next couple of years being driven by conversion to quadrivalent vaccines and immunization of the elderly population. In terms of growth, vaccines for Zika and Dengue have high growth potential. Markets for vaccines for conditions such as viral hemorrhagic fevers depend on the severity and occurrence of the next outbreak and the decision of health authorities to incorporate immunization against the disease in its national programs.

From the perspective of demand, the market for dengue vaccines was $63.8 million in 2016, expected to grow to $930 million at a CAGR of 32%, from 2017 to 2022. Industry experts expect the supply and time to approvals and incorporation in national regulatory programs to slow down market growth. The Central and South America, South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions will be the growth drivers for this market.

For diagnostics, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria are some of the high-value markets, due to high disease burden as well as the need of clinically confirmed diagnosis. Detection kits for RSV, herpes and influenza are under-utilized in developing economies as the clinician can diagnose these, based on clinical findings to a certain accuracy. Thus, unless the cost of diagnostic kits is lowered, diagnosis of disease will be a combination of a clinician’s observation of the symptoms and recommendation of a diagnostic test. Resistance to current standard of therapy is a major issue and newer detection kits also feature assays to identify that."

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Introduction

Study Goals and Objectives
Reasons for Doing This Study
Scope of Report
Information Sources
Methodology
Geographic Breakdown
Analyst's Credentials
Related BCC Research Reports

Chapter 2 Summary and Highlights

Chapter 3 Overview

Top Global Causes of Death
Infectious Diseases
Classification of Infectious Agents
Classification of Modes of Transmission
Management of Infectious Diseases
Bacterial Infectious Diseases
Viral Infectious Diseases
Ebola Case Study
Magnitude of the Outbreak
Response to Manage Ebola
Reasons for Rapid Spread of the Disease
Current Outlook and Advisory
Protozoan Infectious Diseases
Factors Responsible for Emergence and Spread
Vaccines
Antibiotics
Mechanism of Action

Chapter 4 Disease Overview

Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Risk Factors
Etiology and Symptoms
Socio-Economic Burden
Diagnosis
Treatment
Herpes Simplex Virus
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Risk Factors
Etiology and Symptoms
Socio-Economic Burden
Diagnosis
Treatment
HIV/AIDS
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Risk Factors
Etiology and Symptoms
Socio-Economic Burden
Diagnosis
Treatment
Influenza A and Influenza B
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Risk Factors
Etiology and Symptoms
Socio-Economic Burden
Diagnosis
Treatment
Rotavirus
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Risk Factors
Etiology and Symptoms
Socio-Economic Burden
Diagnosis
Treatment
Respiratory Syncytial Virus
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Etiology and Symptoms
Socio-Economic Burden
Diagnosis
Treatment
Malaria
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Risk Factors
Etiology and Symptoms
Socio-Economic Burden
Diagnosis
Treatment
Tuberculosis
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Risk Factors
Etiology and Symptoms
Socio-Economic Burden
Diagnosis
Treatment
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV)
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Risk Factors
Etiology and Symptoms
Socio-Economic Burden
Diagnosis
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers -- Lassa Fever
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Risk Factors
Etiology and Symptoms
Socio-Economic Burden
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers -- Ebola Fever
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Risk Factors
Etiology and Symptoms
Socio-Economic Burden
Treatment
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers -- Marburg
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Risk Factors
Etiology and Symptoms
Socio-Economic Burden
Diagnosis
Treatment
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers -- Zika Virus
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Risk Factors
Etiology and Symptoms
Diagnosis
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers -- Yellow Fever
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Risk Factors
Etiology and Symptoms
Socio-Economic Burden
Diagnosis
Treatment
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers -- Dengue
Incidence and Geographical Distribution
Risk Factors
Etiology and Symptoms
Socio-Economic Burden
Diagnosis
Treatment

Chapter 5 Markets and Forecast

Global Market for Infectious Disease Treatments
Global Market for Infectious Disease Treatments by Region
Global Market for Infectious Disease Therapeutics by Disease Type
Global Market for Infectious Disease Vaccines by Disease Type
Global Market for Infectious Disease Diagnostics by Disease Type
Global Infectious Diseases
Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C
Herpes Simplex Virus
HIV/AIDS
Influenza -- A, B
Rotavirus
Respiratory Syncytial Virus
Malaria
Tuberculosis
MERS-CoV
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers

Chapter 6 Market Dynamics

Infectious Diseases
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
Hepatitis B
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
Hepatitis C
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
Herpes
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
HIV/AIDS
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
Influenza A&B
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
Rotavirus
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
Respiratory Syncytial Virus
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
Malaria
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
Tuberculosis
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
MERS-CoV
Drivers
Unmet Needs
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers - Lassa
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers - Ebola
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers - Marburg
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers - Zika
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers - Yellow Fever
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers - Dengue
Drivers
Deterrents
Unmet Needs

Chapter 7 Antibiotic Resistance

Overview
Mechanisms of Antibiotic Resistance
Reasons for Antibiotic Resistance
Antibiotic Resistance-Incidence
New Antibiotics in Development

Chapter 8 Research and Development

Overview
Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C
Herpes Simplex Virus
HIV/AIDS
Influenza A and Influenza B
Rotavirus
Respiratory Syncytial Virus
Malaria
Tuberculosis
MERS
Hemorrhagic Fevers
Dengue
Ebola
Lassa fever
Marburg
Yellow Fever
Zika

Chapter 9 Next Generation Predictive Tools

Overview
Why Do We Need Forecast Tools?
Examples - Tools in Infectious Disease Modeling
Examples - Mobile Apps in Infectious Disease Modeling
Current Limitations in Infectious Disease Modeling

Chapter 10 Patent Analysis

Hepatitis B
Key Patent Publications
Hepatitis C
Key Patent Publications
Herpes Simplex Virus
Key Patent Publications
HIV/AIDS
Key Patent Publications
Influenza
Key Patent Publications
Rotavirus
Key Patent Publications
Respiratory Syncytial Virus
Key Patent Publications
Malaria
Key Patent Publications
Tuberculosis
Key Patent Publications
MERS-CoV
Key Patent Publications
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers-Lassa
Key Patent Publications
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers - Ebola
Key Patent Publications
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers-Marburg
Key Patent Publications
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers-Zika
Key Patent Publications
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers-Dengue
Key Patent Publications
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers-Yellow Fever
Key Patent Publications

Chapter 11 Company Profiles

ALERE (NOW ABBOTT)
Marketed Products
Alliances
DIASORIN SPA
Marketed Products
Alliances
GILEAD SCIENCES
Marketed Products
Research Portfolio and Alliances
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
Marketed Products
Research Portfolio and Alliances
JANSSEN, PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANY OF JOHNSON & JOHNSON
Marketed Products
Research Portfolio and Alliances
MEDICINES FOR MALARIA VENTURE (MMV)
Marketed Products
Research Portfolio & Alliances
MERCK
Marketed Products
Research Portfolio and Alliances
NOVARTIS
Marketed Products
Research Portfolio and Alliances
ORASURE TECHNOLOGIES INC.
Marketed Products
Alliances
ROCHE DIAGNOSTICS
Marketed Products
Alliances
SANOFI, SANOFI PASTEUR
Marketed Products
Research Portfolio and Alliances
SEQIRUS, A CSL COMPANY
Marketed Products
Research Portfolio and Alliances
SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS
Marketed Products
Molecular Diagnostics

Chapter 12 Appendix

List of Tables

Summary Table : Global Market for Infectious Diseases, by Segment, Through 2022
Table 1 : Global Health Estimates, Leading Causes of Death, by WHO Region, 2015
Table 2 : Global Health Estimates, Leading Causes of Death, Infectious Diseases, by WHO Region, 2015
Table 3 : Reported Cases and Deaths in Ebola Outbreaks, 2007-2016
Table 4 : Prevalence and Incidence of Hepatitis B, 2015
Table 5 : Prevalence and Incidence of Hepatitis C, 2015
Table 6 : Global Death Rate Related to Hepatitis B, 1990-2015
Table 7 : Global Death Rate Related to Hepatitis C, 1990-2015
Table 8 : Global Prevalence and Incidence of Genital Herpes
Table 9 : Prevalence of HIV, Adults (15-49 years old), by WHO Region, 2015
Table 10 : New HIV Infections (per 1,000 uninfected population), Adults (15-49 years old), by WHO Region, 2015
Table 11 : New HIV Infections, 2000-2030
Table 12 : HIV/AIDS Related Deaths, 2000-2030
Table 13 : Years of Life Lost (YLLs), Pandemic Influenza A, H1N1, by WHO Region, 2009
Table 14 : Estimates of Incidence and Number of New Cases, RSV-Associated ALRI and Severe ALRI, Children Under 5 Years, January 1995-June 2009
Table 15 : Hospitalization Rates, RSV-Infected Babies, 1950-2006 (Review*)
Table 16 : Estimated Malaria Incidence, by WHO Region, 2000-2015
Table 17 : Suspected Malaria Cases, by WHO Region, 2010-2015
Table 18 : Confirmed Malaria Cases, by WHO Region, 2010-2015
Table 19 : Estimated Spending on Malaria Treatment, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2014
Table 20 : WHO Guidelines for Treatment of Malaria
Table 21 : Treatment Regimen, Drug Susceptible TB
Table 22 : MERS-CoV Outbreak Updates by WHO, Global, January 2016-June 13, 2017
Table 23 : Laboratory Test for MERS CoV, Recommendation by WHO
Table 24 : Lassa Fever Outbreak Updates by WHO, Global, January 2006-March 2017
Table 25 : Reported Cases and Deaths in Ebola Outbreaks, 2007-June 2017
Table 26 : Reported Cases and Deaths in Marburg Virus, 1998-June 2017
Table 27 : Zika Outbreak Burden, 2015-2016
Table 28 : Reported Cases and Deaths, Yellow Fever, 2010-April 2017
Table 29 : Disease Burden-Yellow Fever in Africa, 2017
Table 30 : Estimated Disease Burden-Yellow Fever in Africa, 1995-2013
Table 31 : Global Prevalence and Incidence of Dengue, 2015
Table 32 : Global Market for Infectious Disease Treatment, by Region, Through 2022
Table 33 : Global Market for Infectious Disease Therapeutics, by Disease Type, Through 2022
Table 34 : Global Market for Infectious Disease Vaccines, by Disease Type, Through 2022
Table 35 : Global Market for Infectious Disease Diagnostics, by Disease Type, Through 2022
Table 36 : Global Market Share for Hepatitis B Drugs, by Brand, 2016
Table 37 : Global Market for Hepatitis B Therapeutics, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 38 : Global Market for Hepatitis B Vaccines, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 39 : Global Market for Hepatitis B Diagnostics, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 40 : Global Market Share for Hepatitis C Drugs, by Brand, 2016
Table 41 : Global Market for Hepatitis C Therapeutics, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 42 : Global Market for Hepatitis C Diagnostics, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 43 : Global Market for HSV Therapeutics, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 44 : Global Market for HSV Diagnostics, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 45 : Global Market Share for HIV Drugs, by Brand, 2016
Table 46 : Global Market for HIV Therapeutics, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 47 : Global Market for HIV Diagnostics, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 48 : Global Market Share for Influenza Vaccines, by Brand, 2016
Table 49 : Global Market Share for Influenza (Antivirals), by Brand, 2016
Table 50 : Global Market for Influenza Vaccines, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 51 : Global Market for Influenza Diagnostics, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 52 : Global Market Share for Rotavirus Vaccines, by Brand, 2016
Table 53 : Global Market for Rotavirus Vaccines, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 54 : Global Market for Rotavirus Diagnostics, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 55 : Global Market for RSV Vaccines, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 56 : Global Market for RSV Diagnostics, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 57 : Global Market Share for ACTs, by Active Ingredient, 2016
Table 58 : Global Market for Malaria Therapeutics, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 59 : Global Market for Malaria Vaccines, by Region, Through 2022
Table 60 : Global Market for Malaria Diagnostics (RDTs*), by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 61 : Global Market for Tuberculosis Therapeutics, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 62 : Global Market for Tuberculosis Diagnostics, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 63 : Global Market for MERS-CoV Vaccines, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 64 : Global Market for Lassa Fever Vaccines, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 65 : Global Market for Ebola Fever Vaccines, Through 2022
Table 66 : Global Market for Zika Vaccines, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 67 : Global Market for Yellow Fever Vaccines, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 68 : Global Market for Dengue Vaccines, by WHO Region, Through 2022
Table 69 : Reported Range of Resistant Population Proportion (%), by WHO Region
Table 70 : WHO Priority List, Pathogens for R&D of New Antibiotics
Table 71 : Global Antibiotics Development Pipeline
Table 72 : Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 73 : Herpes Simplex Virus Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 74 : HIV/AIDS Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 75 : Influenza A and Influenza B Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 76 : Rotavirus Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 77 : RSV Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 78 : Malaria Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 79 : Tuberculosis Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 80 : MERS Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 81 : Dengue Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 82 : Ebola Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 83 : Lassa Fever Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 84 : Marburg Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 85 : Yellow Fever Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 86 : Zika Development Pipeline and Recent Launches
Table 87 : Hepatitis B Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 88 : Hepatitis C Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 89 : Herpes Simplex Virus Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 90 : HIV/AIDS Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 91 : Influenza Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 92 : Rotavirus Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 93 : Respiratory Syncytial Virus Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 94 : Malaria Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 95 : Tuberculosis Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 96 : MERS Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 97 : Lassa Fever Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 98 : Ebola Virus Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 99 : Marburg Virus Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 100 : Zika Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 101 : Dengue Fever Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 102 : Yellow Fever Published Patent Applications, 2013-2017
Table 103 : Number of MMV Supported Projects, by Partner
Table 104 : Abbreviations Used in ""Global Markets for Infectious Diseases""
Table 105 : Glossary of Terms Used in ""Global Markets for Infectious Diseases""
Table 106 : Report Sources"

List of Figures

Summary Figure : Global Market for Infectious Diseases, by Segment, 2016-2022
Figure 1 : Global Health Estimates, 20 Leading Causes of Death, 2015
Figure 2 : Global Health Estimates, Leading Causes of Death, by WHO Region, 2015
Figure 3 : Global Health Estimates, Leading Causes of Death, Infectious Diseases, by WHO Region, 2015
Figure 4 : Outbreaks in West Africa Affected Countries (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone), by Total Number of Cases, March 2014-February 2016
Figure 5 : Outbreaks in West Africa (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone), Total Number of Deaths, March 2014-February 2016
Figure 6 : Global Vaccination Coverage, by Vaccine, 2015
Figure 7 : Global Death Rate Related to Hepatitis B, 1990-2015
Figure 8 : Years of Life (YLLs) Lost Related to Hepatitis B, Global, 2012-2015
Figure 9 : Global Death Rate Related to Hepatitis C, 1990-2015
Figure 10 : Years of Life (YLLs) Lost Related to Hepatitis C, Global, 2012-2015
Figure 11 : DALYs (Disability-affected Life Years) caused by Genital Herpes, Global, 1990-2015
Figure 12 : Global Market Share of New HIV Infections, by WHO Region, 2015
Figure 13 : Global Market Share of HIV/AIDS Related Deaths, by WHO Region, 2015
Figure 14 : Estimated Number of Deaths, 2009 Pandemic Influenza A H1N1, by WHO Region, August 2009-August 2010
Figure 15 : Global Infant Deaths due to Rotavirus, 2009-2013
Figure 16 : Countries with Highest Number of Infant Deaths due to Rotavirus, 2013
Figure 17 : Global Number of Malaria Caused Deaths, 2011-2015
Figure 18 : Global Prevalence of Tuberculosis, 1990-2015
Figure 19 : Global Incidence of Tuberculosis, 1990-2015
Figure 20 : Global Deaths due to Tuberculosis, 1990-2015
Figure 21 : Global Disability-Adjusted Life Years Caused by Tuberculosis, 1990-2015
Figure 22 : Global Incidence of Cases and Deaths from Lassa Fever, November 2015-May 2016
Figure 23 : Total Number of Cases due to Ebola Outbreaks in West Africa Affected Countries (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone), March 2014-February 2016
Figure 24 : Total Number of Deaths due to Ebola Outbreaks in West Africa (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone), March 2014-February 2016
Figure 25 : Number of Cases and Deaths due to Major Marburg Outbreaks, 1998-June 2017
Figure 26 : Number of Countries (Y) with Number of Confirmed Zika Cases (X) in the Americas Region, 2015-2016
Figure 27 : Global Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) due to Yellow Fever, 1990-2015
Figure 28 : Global Death Rate caused by Yellow Fever, 1990-2015
Figure 29 : Average Annual Number of Dengue Cases, 1960-2007
Figure 30 : Number of Dengue Cases reported in America, 2012-2016
Figure 31 : Incidence Rate of Dengue in Americas, 2012-2016
Figure 32 : Global Deaths caused by Dengue, 2011-2015
Figure 33 : Dengue Caused Years of Life Lost*, Global, 2011-2015
Figure 34 : Global Market for Hepatitis B Therapeutics, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 35 : Global Market for Hepatitis B Vaccines, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 36 : Global Market for Hepatitis B Diagnostics, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 37 : Global Market for Hepatitis C Therapeutics, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 38 : Global Market for Hepatitis C Diagnostics, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 39 : Global Market for HSV Therapeutics, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 40 : Global Market for HSV Diagnostics, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 41 : Global Market for HIV/AIDS Therapeutics, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 42 : Global Market for HIV Diagnostics, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 43 : Global Market for Influenza Vaccines, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 44 : Global Market for Influenza Diagnostics, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 45 : Global Market for Rotavirus Vaccines, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 46 : Global Market for Rotavirus Diagnostics, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 47 : Global Market for RSV Vaccines/Antibodies, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 48 : Global Market for RSV Diagnostics, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 49 : Global Market for Malaria Therapeutics, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 50 : Global Market for Malaria Diagnostics (RDTs*), by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 51 : Global Market for Tuberculosis Therapeutics, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 52 : Global Market for Tuberculosis Diagnostics, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 53 : Global Market for MERS-CoV Vaccine, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 54 : Global Market for Lassa Fever Vaccines, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 55 : Global Market for Zika Vaccines, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 56 : Global Market for Yellow Fever Vaccines, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 57 : Global Market for Dengue Vaccines, by WHO Region, 2016-2022
Figure 58 : Antibiotic Use* by Class, Select Classes, 2000 and 2010

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